Iran's supreme leader says the June 12 election was fair and Ahmadinejad won a 'definitive victory.' He also warned against further protests. What will happen next in Iran?
Oh well, thats that. The protest may get larger, but the Iranian leadership will get as violent as it takes to crush them.
It's interesting, but that was the prevailing thought in Europe around 1771 when some piss-ant little colony got their knickers in a twist over taxes on paper goods (Stamp Act) and protested. If something is important enough, violent demonstration/revolution takes on a life of its own. Significant political change usually doesn't happen by the consent of the prevailing authority, so for those to whom martyrdom is a passport to heaven or for whom freedom and self-determination is a cause worth risking everything, there may not be a "crackdown" sufficient to stem a rising tide of unrest. It has happened many times before. It could prove interesting and if we are lucky, transformational. I'm not willing to count them out just yet. Just sayin'
Freedom is inherent in our created being and reflects part of the image of our creator. It may be hindered but it will never cease to be. People will always fight for it - some more than others. Unfortunately, likewise is our struggle with sin and so some people will oppress anyone in their path on the way to power. It is a sad situation in Iran yet only too common.
REVOLUTION...or not? I don't know ... I as most Americans hope for the best for the people of Iran. I would not call what they currently have a "republic" nor a religious state. Any state willing to KILL their people to keep power does not define one as being religious or a true Islamic State. The people should want that and not be FORCED into that.
Good luck and best wishes...
Freedom such a wonderful word and a great concept. We are never free from our own perceptions and prejudices.The Iranian revolution is producing it's own prejudices and misconceptions. The British and the Americans,plus the Zionists are to be blamed for the troubles that the people of Persia are having. The true fault lies with the government of Persia and the theocracy that is in power.The absence of freedom for woman and minorities is blamed on the thought that only one religion or types of people have the right to hold power.The Iranian people are smart and will realize that freedom should be given to all people so the world can live in harmony.
Violence looks to be the end result. If a person with limitless power feels threatened, then the result may be violence.
What happens after this will be interesting. I think that the people of Iran may realize that they are powerless and voiceless against what could become a dictatorship. How does a country rebel against a person that is accountable to no one and has all the power they need.
It will become an interesting moment in history.
cruise, stop being an apologist. You can only shovel that shyte for so long. You can't blame "Zionists" any more than you can blame the British or the US any more. The Iranians have exactly the government they wanted. They did have a revolution, did they not? The problem lies with them and them alone, and it is now up to them to fix it.
YaddaYadda go re-read Aminal Farm and Lord of the Flies. Ideals that spark revolutions can get highjacked.
Can the government lock up a million people? can they kill a million people? If they want a revolution then fight for it "Liberty or Death" If the Iranians refuse to work and sit in the streets what would the government do?
Women have more freedom in Iran than just about any other mid-east country. What are you talking about cruise?
Fazool,
The only difference is that that Piss-Ant Colony was led by experienced men with actual combat experience. How much combat experience does Tehran's Students have? How many owns firearms? How many of them ever fired a weapon?
That lack of experience means that the only way is if leaders in the military turn in their favor. Do not count on the Revolutionary Guard, they will be protecting their own interests. They are bought and paid for by the Supreme Leader.
I do wish the people of Iran peace and prosperity. But more importantly is safety and life. We have all seen how numbers work in the Tianamin Square incident!
I support those who want freedom. I only want them to be safe. Who knows maybe Mousavi has Generals in his pocket?
In reality, a number of generals and military have said that they will not fire on protesters and are taking the heat for that. Also, while it is true that the French and Indian War gave many of the founding fathers some military experience, there were plenty of them who had none. Paul Revere (Silversmith), Nathan Hale (Schoolteacher), Jeffereson (Lawyer), John Adams (Lawyer), and the list goes on. The military leaders were commanding a group comprised mainly farmers, merchants, and workers who picked up their squirrel muskets and came to fight for an idea and because they believed in "liberty or death" Often in a revolution, the liklihood of failure is not sufficient to prevent people from trying. If it were, we would still be sipping tea at 4:00 each day and singing "God Save the Queen" Tally-ho. Just sayin'
Yes, any revolution at this point would require assistance from the military. That's just the reality. I have no idea how tied into the current structure the military is. I contend that most on this message board are as ignorant as I am. That's why I voted above for "I'm not sure."
I don't think anyone could have expected the Russian people to take down a gov't backed by the Red Army, but they did. We will have to see how this truly plays out. I know I will be watching everyday.
Right now Massouvi has enormous leverage. He now has to choose whether to acquiesce to the Supreme Leader or actively pursue a coup d'etat. A very, very exciting 24 hours.
Yeah but Revere knew how to ride a horse and Jefferson was a State Rep in France. There is a far larger number of people that Fought in the Revolution. The ones with experience put most of these people throw a type of Boot Camp during the winters, and they also taught Marksmanship and Guerilla Tactics (of course not all received this training).
These colonists had time to prepare, also. The talks took time (due to no tele's and computers); therefore, commanders had time to prepare. Of course the British really helped by killing people initially.
The other question is would Irans Military be willing to turn their guns on other military (ie the Revolutionary Guard) who would shoot?
It has been 20 years since the Persian population had to fight in Combat. They probably are to old to fight now, but have they been planning for this day? I believe that most of the Persian people with combat experience in the Iran-Iraq war (Who does not like the existing Iranian Government) are probably in the U S right now.
What do you think?
I'm a little surprised the Supreme Leader didn't give himself some wiggle room. He could have done a whole host of things to maintain power. I would have offered Moussavi some position in gov't to help quell the crowds. Instead, he went hardline. Now he has put the ball in Moussavi's court, who likely has more credibility with these crowds than the Supreme Leader.
Schwan,
As far as Russian goes, who do you think is running (and has been running) their country since the take down of the USSR. Those folks already knew what they had to gain. They also knew that their would not be any outside involvement (Meaning that they would not have to worry about foreign attack).
Also look at Organized Crime in Russia, who do you think runs that?
I will say Fazood, writing this made me think that the Persian Military Complex would almost have the same conditions as the Russians. Both their East and West borders are safe from a Conventional Force. What about the Russians they would have a lot to lose.
What makes people think this will necessarily be a bloody revolution, or is at all comparable to the American revolution? There are so many differences between what the Iranian people are experiencing and what the Americans experienced in the late 18th century that it really seems like a silly starting place when looking for a model for Iranian revolution.
I don't know what the role of Paul Revere would be in the age of Twitter. Maybe his role would be meaningless. Maybe he would be the Chris Crocker ("leave brittney alone!" guy) of the American Revolution. Nobody knows! And it's silly to speculate.
beyond disgust:
Nothing you said suggests the Russian model is any worse than the American model. And with oil resources like Iran has, yes, I would expect to see some form of organized crime arising from any revolution.
Schwann, I have said what I have, because I do not see a viable plan for the protestors (I believe if they continue they will be giving their Supreme Leader no choice).
This is not speculation. This is just talking about the what if's. Of course I can not read the future, but there are only so many options on the table.
As far as the Russian Model; I wrote that for Fazool, and was mostly a military model that I was going after. I believe your right that organized crime could play a significant role in Persian Politics if a revolution happened.
I do not understand what you mean about "Worse" than American. I was explaining that the Russian Model was perfect for what happened, not worse!
They need to go the way of Gandhi. Many may die but more would if they try take arms against the government. Nobody wants a civil war in another Muslim country. You never know who will end up in power. You might get some crazy general whose family was killed in the Iraqi war by American arms. Who Knows!
The main issues separating these two parties are mainly economic issues. Both sides want nuclear weapons and both want the U.S. out of the middle east.
Every Texas school educated person knows what a little band of brothers can do. You may loose the battle but your goal can be won by your compatriates. "REMEMBER THE ALAMO"...
If they back down, I bet they will (the leaders and anyone the religious people want) will be executed or in work camps. Better to go down swinging for the hope of others to live free. Numbers will eventually work out, if there are suffecient numbers (and from images of million plus, I think it's good chance). How many students and other lives will a person be willing to kill before he filps sides and question his "orders"...
Freedom will eventually come to Iran! It will not be without cost however. Look at the Bloodshed it took to FREE the USA. Guns and GUTS, got us our freedom and that's what it will take, in Iran.
Freedom comes at a PRICE, one that was paid by all the Democratic nations. I surely hope the US stays out of it. I am tired of being the "Police" of the World. Our economy cannot stand yet another War Front. They need to fight this battle, amounst themselves, if true Freedom is to be acheived!
Israel I beleive will be the answer. After all, they are the one's that are ultimately on the "Front line" and are "condemned" by the current rigime in Iran. I am sure the US will provide what ever it takes for them to secure Peace in that area though.
The US and it's allies will be busy in N. Korea for the time being.
Lord help the peoples of Iran. The path to true Freedom, is a long and uphill battle!
Is that part of the Islamic religion, lying, cheating and killing your own ? What kind of Supreme Leader accepts lying, cheating and killing your own people in the name of Allah ? The people are not morons and neither is the God the Supreme Leader prays to. Power has corrupted Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader and what they are doing to the people will never be forgotten. If they continue to kill the people, the people will not rest until Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader are hanging on the end of a rope.
I would Like to point out something here and it was stated by Thomas Jefferson. This is not a call to arms , but justifies the very reason we the people of the United States have provisions for it as the second amendment of our constitution.
"The strongest reason for a people the retain their right to keep and bear arms is as a last resort to protect themselves against the tyranny in government"- Thomas Jefferson 1781
How does anyone on this thread call what is happening to the People of Iran, anything but tyranny? Now you all have had your civic's for a day. The arguement presented to we the people and currently attempting to be enacted by our Congress is an attempt to stop this very thing from happening here. I ask those of you who can hear to listen, those that see to open your eyes, and those that speak , to open your mouths in protest against the Iranian Government. America- the speaker of freedom needs to open it's mouth. Playing the Political game for your own benefit is a bad thing to do Mr. Obama.
Laws that forbid the carrying of arms disarm only those whom are neither inclined nor determined to commit a crime- Thomas Jefferson
There are more people in Iran than there are guns. If they get the support of the local police and the oil workers (who apparently have agreed to strike), they could actually topple the powers that are headed by the (allegedly) Supreme Leader.
A supposedly religious-based government that is perpetuating fraud and a blatant lie has no credibility. That's what the Iranian people's visceral reaction is about. It's the hypocrisy that is despised. This is among the many, many reasons why a theocracy is the antithesis of a democracy.
#2 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:13 AM EDTAgreement wth "Iran Watcher." But I think they will be patient in tollerating "religious lies."
The 1968 anti-Vietnam War riots put Nixon in office and prolonged the war for another 6 years whereas Humphrey might (?) have realized the waste and lies and stopped the war immediately. The lack of the draft and the realization that the 1968 demonstrations were counter-productive is why there have been almost NO violent demonstrations despite the initial lies of Iraq War 2. That plus the reality that Saddam really was a "bad guy" despite the lies that were used to justify attacking him.
I expect that most of the youthful voters in Iran will use the "Chinese effect" and make their vote count economically by chosing "consumerism" and realizing that if they keep their mouths shut, they will outlive the idiocy of the "religious leaders."
The Iranian people are finally realizing that their government is fraudulant and needs reform. The election was rigged. Their so called look into the election was mis leading and they probably never did. I am glad that the Iranian people are taking to the streets. Their government "cracking down" and limiting social sites and blocking others is proof that they are affraid of a new revolution which will happen and probably happen relatively soon.
#3 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:13 AM EDTLie afer lie after lie. First he invites everybody to participate in the election,then they steal it,then he puts a charade of partial recount,and finnaly this.what whould you expect from amarxist facist dictator that was trained by kgb before the "79 revolution,and has stolen iran for Putin.
#4 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:17 AM EDTA marxist facist dictator trained by the kgb? You should be censored for stupidity. At least try to understand the situation in its cultural context before you speak again.
Travis, in Cybad's defense, the US had many agreements with the Shah before the '79 Revolution. We armed all Iran's branches of military, to defend the Southern USSR border. After the Revolution Iran has had a constant alliance with USSR and then Russia. It is Russia who is building the Nuclear Reactor's in this country and suppling the Uranium. There are many books that have shown that it is very probable that many involved in the Revolution and the later government have had KGB and or Russian Influence
Well, thats that. The protests may continue, and may grow larger, but eventually the government will apply whatever force is necessary to put them down. After all, Iran is a sham democracy ruled by the Clerics, not a real one ruled by the will of the people
#5 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:22 AM EDTsimply, no one can prove any wrong doing in this election, we all have our ideas, but no proof. what the protests have proven though is that amadinejad is nothing more than a puppet of the ruling ayatollah's and they will do what is necessary to maintain control and power.
#6 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:25 AM EDTThat's exactly right, Ahmadinejad must feel pretty unimportant and puppet-like after this, even though he retains his presidency. Frankly I'd feel embarassed to even hold the position after something like this came out.
But that's because the position of President in Iran is a meaningless term of power. The ultimate power rests with the unelected
Good flow chart: http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bsp/hi/image_maps/manuals/09/iran_flow/img/iran_flow786x292.gif
no9racing - I think having 140% voter turnout in some cities won by Ahmadinejad is pretty solid proof that something was not right with the vote count. 40% more people voted than EXIST in that city.
Contrary to all the bad comments one hears, the Iranians are a proud people who have a broader middle class than most muslim nations. The revolution in 1979 was due to US meddling and Iranian suffering under the Shah who was our puppet. The Iranians at that time chose what they thought was the lesser of two evils. A majority of the population now is under 30, and did not choose the extreme mullahs. They are stuck with them, and they want to join the rest of the world in openness and prosperity.
The Iranians themselves must show their government that the current arrangement is not acceptable. They are bravely doing so. No one can say how it will come out in the end, but it is certain now that Obama has had an amazing impact on the politics of that region - first Lebanon, now Iran. People there can now visualize a moderate regime and feel confident that the US is not going to try to sabotage any efforts made in good faith. THAT is a huge paradigm shift.
We wish you well.
The usual lies have started later than I thought. I thought they would blame the west for the riots and the rigged elections much sooner, like the first day. The clerics blame the west for everything that goes wrong in their countries. They haven't learned to separate religion from politics. So, the powerful and ignorant still rule. The only thing that unites them is their hatred of the west.
#7 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:27 AM EDTThey aren't the only country that hasn't learned to separate religion from politics, my friend. Look around. They are just more honest about the role religion plays in their political decisions. Just sayin'
They would of blamed the west if we didn't have a president with a brain on his shoulders. Thank you Obama for not sticking your nose into a situation that we can not do ANYTHING about.
For those who want Obama to openly say the election was fraud and to support the rioters, what do when the Iranian government starts killing these people on the street. Do you just say O'well try again in 4 years? You don't get involved in these situation unless you have the will or might to see it through.
Mike 937635- this is a very foolish thing to say. When will you quit blaming eveything on the last president, by your inferances? When will people wake up and realize that liberty and freedom of the people is the only basis that can be thought up that has any real reward for the people? Thank you Obama? He is carefully waying his words against his great big support of Islam he displayed in the middle east. Freedom and Liberty do not go with Hard line Islamic clerics, It is a threat to their existance. Islam in the middle east version is about suppression and control and holding the minds of the young and influencable for ransom. If you want power you will do as I say. If you want to be in power, you cant because I am in charge, but you can kiss my behind until I die and maybe I will find favor to you after a time. That is the precursor to a revolution if I have ever heard of one. Dont blame bush for your woe's blame yourself, use the only certain tool you have and that is the hands at the end of your arms and maybe we the people will survive our own failings to be responsible.
the religious leaders are islamic and radical. more of the same. I feel sorry for those repressed and poor. Women's rights are trampled and children will still be born to be brain-washed. Such a waste.
#8 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:31 AM EDTDoes this really surprise anyone? I was expecting Ama-nut-job to win with 100% of the vote. I continue to hear people say the US should mind it's own business. While there's some validity to that I also think it's our responsibility to support those who want to be free. Yes some will argue that even we aren't truly free but that's not the point. What I'm saying is that our way of life is not to shabby, I don't blame others for wanting to be able to be what they want, say what they want, do what they want, with whoever they want, whenever they want without worry. I'm one voice. I myself support the protesters simply because I feel deep down in my heart it's the right thing to do. Freedom is a beautiful thing. I will always stand on the side of those wanting to pursue it. Have a great day!! Happy Fathers Day to all the dads out there...
#9 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:33 AM EDTyou know, i am not either a democrat or repiblican, not even an independent, but i have seen some many posts between dems and reps on these boards that makes you want to vomit with all the ignorance and sometimes hate against them and i must say, YOUR post and point of view is simple, polite yet clear and powerful... you are a decent democrat!!! my hat is off to you.
so to all out there that are loyal to a political party and views, its ok to be passionate, but you make much more of an impact by addressing issues in a polite way than having a cut throat approach.
I feel for these people as much as the next person. However, saying ANYTHING about these elections gives validity to the clerics' propaganda targeted at the conservative rulers and supporters, that being that the West is trying to manipulate and take down Iran. Were we not in the midst of trying to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, I would be all for open criticism of their government. Problem is, like I said, it wouldn't help the opposition. It only provides more propaganda for the ruling dictators.
Kyle saying nothing is Propaganda for them. Have you heard or read what Obama has said. He pretty much said that we have no proof that something has been done illegally. And they are still blameing the US. Why not protest France for what they have said? I will tell you that they have contracts (France to give) technical and support for their Nuclear Program.
beyonddisgust, they will try to find a scapegoat for everything and anything. The US is an easy target because of our past meddling in others' affairs. Note that the Ayatollah also blamed Britain and Israel for meddling, which they have done none of so far as I can tell. If we speak now, it only validates those claims. Unlike other suppressed and oppressed nations, Iran is fairly educated. They will see through those lies as long as we keep our mouths shut. I have read much of what Obama has said, and everything he said is true. We have NO PROOF. And if you think we do, please provide it for the rest of the world to see. All we have are assumptions and logical deductions, but no concrete evidence. Obama has also said, if you choose not to paraphrase for a moment, that he believes peaceful protest is a right of every free nation. And of course they're not going to blame France. They're not blaming Russia or China either. They're looking for a scapegoat and you give them one by criticizing their process.
Kyle - best post I've seen.
Just wanted to add.
If we came out supporting the protesters what do we do when the Iranian Government starts killing them on the streets. Do we support them with military aid or do we turn our backs on them? If we do nothing but give more speeches what would they think of us then?
Good point Mike. What happens if a civil war starts and we've been backing the opposition? We're pretty much obligated to come to their aid. It would certainly hurt our already damaged credibility if and when we did nothing, as was the case when Shiites and Kurds in Iraq tried revolting shortly after the Persian Gulf War and we stood idly by and watched them get gassed.
to add to Kyle - how about the fiasco with Georgia attacking Russia and getting their butts kicked while we just stood around and watched... I think that Obama should give a speech praising the Iranian people for a successful election and use all of "The Supreme Leaders" speeches from the revolution about freeing the Iranian people - the Iranian leadership certainly couldn't say anything but good things about the speech while the protesters could use the exact same words to voice their contempt for the leadership...
The Georgia/Russia dustup was before the election, don't forget...
And what should we have done? Gone to war with Russia?
However this turns out, Obama's warning that the world is watching carries a lot of meaning. If the outcome is the overthrow of the Ayatollah with relatively little bloodshed that would be a great score for democracy (at the onset... let's not discuss what happens later... don't count your chickens). This good outcome can happen. The opposition has already gone beyond the masses in the streets. There's already rifts within the Iranian government, and rifts within their own military....
If, heaven forbid, there's a bloody crackdown and the revolution is squashed--and this is MUCH, MUCH bigger than Tiananmen Square, involving cities in protest so that's going to take one heck of a coordinated full-scale attack--then the government will still have played a failing hand. As Obama said, the world is watching. And the world is judging the Ayatollah's every move.
If Iran was isolated before, think what the world's reaction would be to an Iran that just committed full-scale genocide against its own populace with the entire world glued to the events. Especially in a nation which might be developing nuclear weapons, and whose leadership called Israel a rotting corpse that would be wiped off the earth. Then it won't be Iran's fight, or an invitation for America to come to its aid. I believe the entire free world would swoop in. And nobody would blame any nation after seeing what depths its leaders would be willing to descend..
That second option is the most sorrowful, horrifying option... but at best or at worst things will not go back to normal in Iran... The Ayatollah's power is sunk.Â
And one other great thing has happened: The constant messages from Iran to the world has killed any stereotype of these people. They are us, with different faces and in different lands. They are us. They are not "the enemy." A government can be oppressive, lie to its people, lie to the world, manipulate its resources... but the PEOPLE are the PEOPLE. If anyone has any doubts about that, just remember the Iranians words of protest say what every person wants: "Freedom. Liberty. A Voice." And if you still have doubts, pay attention tomorrow, because in the face of oppression these people are willing to bleed and die for it. I pray this ends with freedom being fulfilled.Â
Here's a copy of a message from Huffington Post, typed by an Iranian blogger. A student. An open mind. This person sounds just like anyone. This could be your child, brother, sister, best friend. This one person is willing to die tomorrow for freedom. There was a seed of doubt about whether or not protests would take place after the Ayatollah's warning-filled speech, but after reading this I am choked up. The Iranians will be in my heart and mind tonight and every moment.
"I will participate in the demonstrations tomorrow. Maybe they will turn violent. Maybe I will be one of the people who is going to get killed. I'm listening to all my favorite music. I even want to dance to a few songs. I always wanted to have very narrow eyebrows. Yes, maybe I will go to the salon before I go tomorrow! There are a few great movie scenes that I also have to see. I should drop by the library, too. It's worth to read the poems of Forough and Shamloo again. All family pictures have to be reviewed, too. I have to call my friends as well to say goodbye. All I have are two bookshelves which I told my family who should receive them. I'm two units away from getting my bachelors degree but who cares about that. My mind is very chaotic. I wrote these random sentences for the next generation so they know we were not just emotional and under peer pressure. So they know that we did everything we could to create a better future for them. So they know that our ancestors surrendered to Arabs and Mongols but did not surrender to despotism. This note is dedicated to tomorrow's children..."
I hope this reminds all of us that we should be thankful that we have it so easy we're able to bicker over small things and divide ourselves over petty politics.Â
Kyle and Mike- Obviously you are not mathamaticians or stataticians- How is it possible to have more votes than population???????? No proof? This is why we have the mess we have and the debt that just trippled- Duh? where does the taxes that pay for stimulas come from? Duh---- From the working guy who pays them- duh----What happens if he isnt working?- Duhhh----- No taxes get paid- Duh----So who pays the bill? Duhhh-- the printer-----!
Clearly the election does not matter anyway. The clerics run this puppet government and apparently just disappear people at a whim. These guys are worse than Saddam ever was but what action will we take there? none.
#10 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:37 AM EDTWe , The USA need to allow people to govern themselves without our CIA involvement. We are not the holiest of countries. Back off and leave the Iranians to themselves!!!
#11 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:40 AM EDTThe real reason for NOT having CIA involvement is that the CIA will likely screw it up and make it worse like it seems EVERYTHING they have done since it was created.
OUR ex-Nazi spies warned of the horrors of the Soviets that they learned from the KGB ex-Nazi spies because fear was good for business and preserved all ex-Nazi jobs. The truth is that the Soviet army would have collapsed in a week of combat from lack of ability and supplies. Why do you think that the Taliban nut jobs were able to use our weapons to chase them out of Afghanistan?
And who encouraged us to supply arms to Saddam? (Rumsfeld's signature is on the receipts.)
And who supported the Shah and Saddam so as to make the Iranian religious "nut jobs" (perhaps justifiably) view us as the "Great Satan?"
Obama is a genius in keeping his mouth shut as to Iran because ANYTHING he says will become a lose-lose situtation.
But Jym he has not kept his mouth shut! He just said what was plane to see. That it looks fishy, but I have no proof to say otherwise.
Support for Saddam came about 3 years after the '79 Revolution. We supported the Shah first.
O'brother is further weakening the American resolve and watering down the strength of our once great nation. Strength of One nation under God, indivisable, freedom, liberty and justice for all ( meaning everyone in the world) YUP you heard me correctly- if we expand our borders and rights to all the illegals than we might as well expand to the whole world. Going a little too far you think? Naw just going with the flow- spend it baby! How is the change going? yeah thats the stuff thats left after he takes all the cash out of your pocket- change!
That is America- Not this pacifist garbage of basing everything you say for your own personal benefit and Power- which is what O'brother is doing. FDR all over again until the Poop hits the fan.....
It all depends on how far the people are willing to go. Are they willing to make the sacrifices necessary (in human lives, etc) to overthrow the government or at least force it to change? The Ayatollahs have decided to stand their ground; either this cycle is going to perpetuate or the people will have the courage to do what's right and be willing to pay the price.
#12 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:44 AM EDTIf I was an Iranian, I would tell this Supreme Leader to kIss my -ss. How is it humanly possible to count millions of paper ballots within minutes of the polls closing? He just made an fool of himself in front of the whole world.
#13 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 8:58 AM EDTBut you are NOT an Iranian. Whatever choice the populace makes has to be THEIR choice or they can continue to blame "outsiders" for their problems.
Hey it was about 2 to 3 hours. But even then.
Telling the Supreme Leader to do that in Iran would just mean that you do not exist. You would disappear!
Jym Allyn,
Please check my comments once more. Nowhere do I state that the people of Iran should not have a choice. I was commenting on the Supreme Leader comments on the election. I agree that the people of Iran should choose their own leaders but this Supreme Idiot is daring the population to do something and hopefully they will.
This is a far more complex situation that it seems many of you realize. I think many of you are unaware of several facts. The Assembly of Experts, the body who decides who the Supreme is/will be, is far from being of one mind on the issue. Assembly Chairman Rafsanjani has stated that he believes the elections were rigged. He's the number two power player and his religious authority is more highly regarded than that of Khomenei. And Rafsanjani is not by any means the only member of the Assembly who believes the election was rigged.
Then there's the Majis of Iran (the Iranian parliament) a majority of which sent letters of congratulations to Ahmadenijad, but many of those who sent letters are now pulling back their support.
While a violent crackdown may still be in the offing, it seems clear that it would not have solid support from within the highest levels of government. I think the key question will be the effectiveness of Khamenei's assertion that the protests are the fault of Israel, Britain, and the US. I have a hard time believing that a majority, if any of the protestors are going to buy into that.
I'm still holding out hope that between the Assembly of Experts and the Majis of Iran there will be sufficient support for holding a new election, if not overturning the election results outright. There is evidence to suggest that either is not entirely outsoud the realm of possibility.
I do find it curious that we have new this morning of Khamenei's address but nothing yet on the reaction of the opposition. Is that possibly being delayed out of respect for the fact that today is Mulsim sabbath?
#14 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 9:10 AM EDTI think the delay is exactly for that reason. That is why they also scheduled their next rally for Saturday.
I dont know what will happen next but hope that if they (Mousavi, the other two candidates, and their supporters) continue, that the more powerful clerics and 'Experts' back the people. There is no place for dictatorshipsI wish the people of Iran the best and hope that whatever the MAJORITY of the people want and need comes to pass. Good luck to you all.
The weakest part of an argument is the part about which one is most adamant. I see the current ruler getting more and more adamant that fraud didn't occur, which weakens his position. I see the protesters "mourning" in increased numbers and frequency as the current rulers attempt to crack down. Eventually, Tehran will likely grind to a halt, and the current rulers will have to decide between continued crackdowns, leading to more paralysis, or concession. I see the latter as the only viable option.
#15 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 9:14 AM EDTYou forgot another choice: a full 'revolution' that gives the Iranian people a more democratic govt. It may not be democratic to the extent that we in the west are accustomed too but it would be (hopefully) what works for the Iranians.
Jodeman, the revolution does not make democracy. The death and destruction of the other side does that. Because after the fighting the fixing needs to begin. And then the creation of a new government.
Death is never onesided in these situations.
I wonder if the Supreme Imbecile will seek asylum in Russia or Saudi Arabia. Maybe Iraq.
That is not the answer the Iranian people needed to hear, apparently the Supreme Leader is supporting Ahmadinejad, and the people can sacrifice their votes, I don't think many Iranians are going to do that. My support goes to the Iranian people in whatever they do.
#16 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 9:15 AM EDTSo much for Obama's olive branch and trying to reason with the muslim world
#17 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 9:15 AM EDTSteve -
You really have forgotten the past two weeks. Did you miss the election in Lebanon? Do you think this would have occurred in Iran if Bush still had been threatening? Nope.
It is because of Obama's conversation with the muslim world that all this is happening. He is not forcing things, he is allowing them to mold their own future, or at least try. His approach has opened doors and let in light that we did not imagine could shine so soon on Iranian politics.
If you need a "laugher" - try McCain's efforts at singing about bombing Iran.... That mindless approach would have gotten us nowhere.... I hope I misunderstood your comment....
There is Still ONE INSTITUTION that Hasn't put it's 2 cents in ------ And that's the Regular Army. There has Even been unconfirmed reports of certain Revolutionary guard commanders being arrested for refusing to obey orders to fire on it's own people. long ago, A Roman Emperor said : "Take care of the soldiers & the rest doesn't Matter". The Military REFLECTS the SOCIETY. If the ORDER is given---WILL THEY FIRE or TURN on their Clerical Masters?????????????????????????????????????????????????
#18 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 9:18 AM EDTGreat point ray, I emigrated to this country from the former Soviet Union and when that ideoit system was in the process of falling appart, the same soldiers that were ordered to put a halt to the demonstrations simply sat by idly allowing them to continue which led to the downfall of the Soviet Union and it's eventual breakup. The order to brake up the demonstrators with vilance will come very very soon....what will the armed/shileded guards do. If they defy their masters, the system will fall.
Very good point Raymond.
If the "Revolutionary Guard" does escalate the violence, I expect that the Regular Army will be more secular and view the religious "Revolutionary Guard" as being counter to the needs of the people. Maybe.
This could get very violent.
Ironically, the big "Rumsfeld-Cheney-Bremmer" mistake in Iraq was disassembing the secular Army not only because it would have done a better job of maintaining "law and order" in Iraq and minimizing the religious armies, but it provided the soldiers with jobs that kept them from becoming religious soldiers.
We have 4,000 "post victory" dead American soldiers in Iraq because of the "Rumsfeld-Cheney-Bremmer" stupidity.
This is the tipping point now. Do the opposition supporters continue to rally and protest or will this threat of a strong crackdown really happen? If the latter happens people there will not forget what could happen. It will be stewing for some time and out of nowhere the country will tip in favor of reformists. But the U.S. should stay out and not fall into the desires of other countries to speak on their behalf. If they want to say something, let them take the fall. We have had decades of "open mouth/insert foot" presidents/leaders here. Did the world tell us what to do when Bush "stole" the election in 2000? No. So we have no right to speak either. I am sure most of the Iranian people know what the U.S. wants. Obama has already made it clear he wants to smooth over relations and the response in Iranian streets is for more freedoms but they do not want any country telling them how to operate. Would you like it if China said to the U.S. stop spending, control this and that? They hold our debt and can cause havoc if they really wanted to.
But to the greedy USA people, keep driving gas guzzlers, wasting fuel and questioning Obama's plan to look into alternative fuels. We may not by oil from Iran but from a couple of their "friends" just south of the USA (Ecuador and Venezuela; Correa and Chavez have strong ties w/Iran). We can really hit them hard with less $$$$ going to them to fuel their Marxist agendas.
#19 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 9:18 AM EDTYour absolutely right ACHTUNG. We should be drilling for oil in Alaska instead of buying it from them!
Beyonddisgust -
We should be saving fuel, not drilling for more. If we cut 1/4 of our current usage - no need to destroy the pristine wilderness.
How? trade in your 15 mpg car for a 30 mpg (or more) car. Doesn't need to be a hybrid or electric - diesels get this easily with great performance. Turn your thermostat up 76 degrees in the summer, and down to 68 in the winter....if they aren't already. Work on a 4 10 hour day work week (a lot of jobs allow this). Invest in good replacement windows for your homes. How about some solar panels to cut gas used for hot water. Recycle. Stop using petroleum based chemicals on your yards. Buy products that are not over-packaged with petroleum based materials. Shut off lights when you leave the room.
Our greed and sense that we should ravage the world to get whatever we want lacks foresight, and will leave our children more mess than we have already created. We are 5% of the world's population, and use 25% of its resources.... We need to slow down on the consumption - not root around for more to maintain our excessive usage.
I agree with heychalie, the election is a sham.... I believe that with time the imams will cook their own gooses with their repression. You have to be a total idiot to believe the nonsense they are spuing to their own people... repression like this has a way of caving in on itself... it will happen.
#20 - Fri Jun 19, 2009 9:18 AM EDTThe protesters in Iran need to move toward Non Violent Constant Action similar to Ghandi in India and Martin Luther King in the United States. Also, we need to follow all those arrested and demand on the internet accountablility as to their location. Through inside protected contacts in Iran, get the name of the arrested people and make them the cause for the UN, Red Cross, Human Rights Organizations in Iran, et.
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The leadership in the name of Allah will start killing people. What a great religion.